2008.5.27 NPB Update

We’re a week into interleague play now, and that changes the day off to Tuesday, so that gives us an opportunity to look at some overlooked numbers in baseball, especially NPB.

Def Eff 守備効率	F% 守備率	FIP	ERA 防御率	W% 勝率	CL セリーグ
0.685	0.989	4.13	4.49	0.304	BayStars 横　　浜
0.689	0.988	4.00	3.56	0.477	Carp 広　　島
0.688	0.990	3.18	2.87	0.587	Dragons 中　　日
0.669	0.988	3.51	4.19	0.49	Giants 巨　　人
0.713	0.989	4.24	3.55	0.457	Swallows ヤクルト
0.693	0.991	3.15	2.73	0.681	Tigers 阪　　神

 In CL we see that defensive competency is actually keeping the Giants and Swallows closer in the standings than they really should be, as the Giants have better pitching but worse ERA due to having the worst defenders in the league (no big surprise here for a team that is always assembled full of sluggers).

DER 守備効率	F% 守備率	FIP	ERA 防御率	W% 勝率	PL パリーグ
0.678	0.988	4.19	4.49	0.415	Buffaloes オリックス
0.697	0.987	3.36	3.28	0.529	Eagles 楽　　天
0.709	0.984	3.79	2.94	0.547	Fighters 日本ハム
0.682	0.985	3.61	3.90	0.481	Hawks ソフトバンク
0.699	0.984	3.63	3.22	0.627	Lions 西　　武
0.679	0.985	3.82	4.26	0.407	Marines ロッテ

In the PL, Fighters have great pitchers, but it’s their defense that makes them a winning team (with league leading ERA) despite their pathetic offense (team OBP of .300 is by far the worst in the league). Eagles are for real, with their solid pitching, defense, and league leading .350 OBP and run scoring prowess, they should actually be winning more games than they currently are. Look for them to solidify their playoff position in the coming weeks.

Now let’s look at individual batting and pitching leaders in OPS and FIP. I’ve added their conventional stats for sake of comparison.

	Avg	R	HR	RBI
	打	得	本	打
OPS			塁		Batter	Team
	率	点	打	点
1.121	0.356	36	15	42	Sato	Lions
1.037	0.337	29	17	43	Ramirez	Giants
1.016	0.337	27	9	34	Yamasaki	Eagles
0.988	0.333	33	12	42	Nakajima	Lions
0.96	0.313	30	12	23	Woods	Dragons
0.939	0.34	29	5	38	Arai	Tigers
0.938	0.328	36	9	42	Matsunaka	Hawks
0.937	0.301	31	7	30	Tanaka	Fighters
0.936	0.262	27	12	37	Rhodes	Buffaloes
0.922	0.29	23	14	43	Murata	BayStars

 G.G. Sato is still absolutely tearing the cover off the ball, if he continues to hit like this, he’ll be needed on Team Japan in Beijing, even though GM Hoshino didn’t select him as part of the first set of candidates. Alex Ramirez is hitting .368 with 10 HR at his new home, the homer friendly Tokyo Dome. While not a huge split, he’s definitely benefitted from the move to the Big Egg and he’s also the only Giant slugger who is currently hitting like he should. Names like Lee, Ogasawara, and Takahashi should be on this list but they’re not due to various reasons like underperformance and injuries. Nakajima makes up for his defensive shortcomings (especially poor range) with his superb hitting. There are no NPB middle infielders who come close to him with the bat. And Tuffy Rhodes is the classic proof on this list that the batting average is a misleading indicator. 

	ERA	W	L
	防	勝	敗
FIP	御			Pitcher	Team
	率	利	北
1.61	2.85	4	3	Sugiuchi	Hawks
2.02	2.05	7	2	Iwakuma	Eagles
2.41	2.27	6	4	Lewis	Carp
2.76	1.52	5	1	Darvish	Fighters
2.82	3.1	5	3	Tanaka	Eagles
2.93	3.56	2	3	Utsumi	Giants
2.97	2.9	4	4	Shimizu	Marines
2.99	2.07	3	2	Naruse	Marines
3.07	1.68	5	1	Iwata	Tigers
3.07	1.75	5	0	Hoashi	Lions
3.09	1.99	2	5	Miura	BayStars

In the pitching department, we see that Sugiuchi and Utsumi are not being helped by their defense or run support. Iwakuma’s dominating comeback this year is no fluke. Miura, the bancho (big boss) of ‘hama, has the tough luck of playing on a .300 team, even if his ERA is a bit misleading, the won-loss record is even more misleading. Similarly Darvish, Naruse, Iwata, and Hoashi may not fully deserve their ERAs in the 1.5-2.1 range, but they’re all having good to excellent seasons.

Finally, a look at the Pythagorean win expectations. 

 

Central League	RS	RA	W%	Pythag%
	得	失	勝	ピタゴラス
セリーグ				勝率
	点	点	率
Tigers 阪　　神	188	141	0.681	0.640
Dragons 中　　日	184	156	0.587	0.582
Giants 巨　　人	195	212	0.490	0.458
Carp 広　　島	160	176	0.477	0.452
Swallows ヤクルト	159	174	0.457	0.455
BayStars 横　　浜	160	216	0.304	0.354

 Just looking at runs scored and allowed sees the Tigers separate themselves from the Dragons, just as in real life. And it makes sense as both teams pitching and defense match up, but the Tigers have the top 4 out of 6 hitters in CL OBP in Akahoshi, Arai, Kanemoto, and Toritani. Giants have started to hit and have been winning more, accordingly, but I guess their early season woes still place them in the same group as the Carp and Swallows. With the continuing slumps and injuries, Yomiuri looks to fight for the 3rd and last playoff spot long into the summer.

 

Pacific League	RS	RA	W%	Pythag%
	得	失	勝	ピタゴラス
パリーグ				勝率
	点	点	率
Lions 西　　武	256	191	0.627	0.642
Fighters 日本ハム	181	181	0.547	0.500
Eagles 楽　　天	234	182	0.529	0.623
Hawks ソフトバンク	217	230	0.481	0.471
Buffaloes オリックス	210	251	0.415	0.412
Marines ロッテ	218	252	0.407	0.428

Lions just lost the 2 game interleague mini-series against Hanshin in Koshien, showing that without the longball the team may be vulnerable. The Fighters have been punching above their Pythagorean weight due to all the 1 and 2 run wins, just like last year. And we can expect the Eagles to win more, posing a real threat that the Hawks will miss the playoffs for the first time since the system was introduced in 2004.  

 

Just a cursory glance at what’s happening in the NPB beyond the conventional stats, hopefully I’ll settle on a good format for this update soon.