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  • 2008.5.27 NPB Update

    Posted by simon c on 2008 May 27日 Tuesday

    We’re a week into interleague play now, and that changes the day off to Tuesday, so that gives us an opportunity to look at some overlooked numbers in baseball, especially NPB.

    Def Eff
    守備効率

    F%
    守備率

    FIP

    ERA
    防御率

    W%
    勝率

    CL
    セリーグ

               

    0.685

    0.989

    4.13

    4.49

    0.304

    BayStars
    横  浜

    0.689

    0.988

    4.00

    3.56

    0.477

    Carp
    広  島

    0.688

    0.990

    3.18

    2.87

    0.587

    Dragons
    中  日

    0.669

    0.988

    3.51

    4.19

    0.49

    Giants
    巨  人

    0.713

    0.989

    4.24

    3.55

    0.457

    Swallows
    ヤクルト

    0.693

    0.991

    3.15

    2.73

    0.681

    Tigers
    阪  神

     In CL we see that defensive competency is actually keeping the Giants and Swallows closer in the standings than they really should be, as the Giants have better pitching but worse ERA due to having the worst defenders in the league (no big surprise here for a team that is always assembled full of sluggers).

    DER
    守備効率

    F%
    守備率

    FIP

    ERA
    防御率

    W%
    勝率

    PL
    パリーグ

               

    0.678

    0.988

    4.19

    4.49

    0.415

    Buffaloes
    オリックス

    0.697

    0.987

    3.36

    3.28

    0.529

    Eagles
    楽  天

    0.709

    0.984

    3.79

    2.94

    0.547

    Fighters
    日本ハム

    0.682

    0.985

    3.61

    3.90

    0.481

    Hawks
    ソフトバンク

    0.699

    0.984

    3.63

    3.22

    0.627

    Lions
    西  武

    0.679

    0.985

    3.82

    4.26

    0.407

    Marines
    ロッテ

    In the PL, Fighters have great pitchers, but it’s their defense that makes them a winning team (with league leading ERA) despite their pathetic offense (team OBP of .300 is by far the worst in the league). Eagles are for real, with their solid pitching, defense, and league leading .350 OBP and run scoring prowess, they should actually be winning more games than they currently are. Look for them to solidify their playoff position in the coming weeks.

    Now let’s look at individual batting and pitching leaders in OPS and FIP. I’ve added their conventional stats for sake of comparison.

     

    Avg

    R

    HR

    RBI

       
     

       

    OPS

       

     

    Batter

    Team

     

       
                 

    1.121

    0.356

    36

    15

    42

    Sato

    Lions

    1.037

    0.337

    29

    17

    43

    Ramirez

    Giants

    1.016

    0.337

    27

    9

    34

    Yamasaki

    Eagles

    0.988

    0.333

    33

    12

    42

    Nakajima

    Lions

    0.96

    0.313

    30

    12

    23

    Woods

    Dragons

    0.939

    0.34

    29

    5

    38

    Arai

    Tigers

    0.938

    0.328

    36

    9

    42

    Matsunaka

    Hawks

    0.937

    0.301

    31

    7

    30

    Tanaka

    Fighters

    0.936

    0.262

    27

    12

    37

    Rhodes

    Buffaloes

    0.922

    0.29

    23

    14

    43

    Murata

    BayStars

     G.G. Sato is still absolutely tearing the cover off the ball, if he continues to hit like this, he’ll be needed on Team Japan in Beijing, even though GM Hoshino didn’t select him as part of the first set of candidates. Alex Ramirez is hitting .368 with 10 HR at his new home, the homer friendly Tokyo Dome. While not a huge split, he’s definitely benefitted from the move to the Big Egg and he’s also the only Giant slugger who is currently hitting like he should. Names like Lee, Ogasawara, and Takahashi should be on this list but they’re not due to various reasons like underperformance and injuries. Nakajima makes up for his defensive shortcomings (especially poor range) with his superb hitting. There are no NPB middle infielders who come close to him with the bat. And Tuffy Rhodes is the classic proof on this list that the batting average is a misleading indicator. 

     

    ERA

    W

    L

       
     

       

    FIP

       

    Pitcher

    Team

     

       
               

    1.61

    2.85

    4

    3

    Sugiuchi

    Hawks

    2.02

    2.05

    7

    2

    Iwakuma

    Eagles

    2.41

    2.27

    6

    4

    Lewis

    Carp

    2.76

    1.52

    5

    1

    Darvish

    Fighters

    2.82

    3.1

    5

    3

    Tanaka

    Eagles

    2.93

    3.56

    2

    3

    Utsumi

    Giants

    2.97

    2.9

    4

    4

    Shimizu

    Marines

    2.99

    2.07

    3

    2

    Naruse

    Marines

    3.07

    1.68

    5

    1

    Iwata

    Tigers

    3.07

    1.75

    5

    0

    Hoashi

    Lions

    3.09

    1.99

    2

    5

    Miura

    BayStars

    In the pitching department, we see that Sugiuchi and Utsumi are not being helped by their defense or run support. Iwakuma’s dominating comeback this year is no fluke. Miura, the bancho (big boss) of ‘hama, has the tough luck of playing on a .300 team, even if his ERA is a bit misleading, the won-loss record is even more misleading. Similarly Darvish, Naruse, Iwata, and Hoashi may not fully deserve their ERAs in the 1.5-2.1 range, but they’re all having good to excellent seasons.

    Finally, a look at the Pythagorean win expectations. 

     

    Central League

    RS

    RA

    W%

    Pythag%

     

    ピタゴラス

    セリーグ

     

     

     

    勝率

     

     

             

    Tigers
    阪  神

    188

    141

    0.681

    0.640

    Dragons
    中  日

    184

    156

    0.587

    0.582

    Giants
    巨  人

    195

    212

    0.490

    0.458

    Carp
    広  島

    160

    176

    0.477

    0.452

    Swallows
    ヤクルト

    159

    174

    0.457

    0.455

    BayStars
    横  浜

    160

    216

    0.304

    0.354

     Just looking at runs scored and allowed sees the Tigers separate themselves from the Dragons, just as in real life. And it makes sense as both teams pitching and defense match up, but the Tigers have the top 4 out of 6 hitters in CL OBP in Akahoshi, Arai, Kanemoto, and Toritani. Giants have started to hit and have been winning more, accordingly, but I guess their early season woes still place them in the same group as the Carp and Swallows. With the continuing slumps and injuries, Yomiuri looks to fight for the 3rd and last playoff spot long into the summer.

     

    Pacific League

    RS

    RA

    W%

    Pythag%

     

    ピタゴラス

    パリーグ

     

     

     

    勝率

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    Lions
    西  武

    256

    191

    0.627

    0.642

    Fighters
    日本ハム

    181

    181

    0.547

    0.500

    Eagles
    楽  天

    234

    182

    0.529

    0.623

    Hawks
    ソフトバンク

    217

    230

    0.481

    0.471

    Buffaloes
    オリックス

    210

    251

    0.415

    0.412

    Marines
    ロッテ

    218

    252

    0.407

    0.428

    Lions just lost the 2 game interleague mini-series against Hanshin in Koshien, showing that without the longball the team may be vulnerable. The Fighters have been punching above their Pythagorean weight due to all the 1 and 2 run wins, just like last year. And we can expect the Eagles to win more, posing a real threat that the Hawks will miss the playoffs for the first time since the system was introduced in 2004.  

     

    Just a cursory glance at what’s happening in the NPB beyond the conventional stats, hopefully I’ll settle on a good format for this update soon.

    One Response to “2008.5.27 NPB Update”

    1. […] got a great post up over at his blog outlining some NPB metrics. It’s a little hard to cut and paste the entire thing, so […]

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