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    Posts Tagged ‘OBP’

    2008.7.14 Batting and Pitching leaders

    Posted by japanstats on 2008 July 14日 Monday

    High school baseball’s regional qualifying tournaments for the annual Koshien tournament is well under way, but NPB is taking its usual day off on Monday, so let’s take a look.

    Batting (based OPS) as of 14 July 2008:

    The ageless 40 year old wonder and world record holder for most consecutive innings played, Tomoaki Kanemoto of the Hanshin Tigers, is the NPB OPS leader. His career line sits at around .300/.400/.550 (in healthy seasons), so while his performance is amazing, it is not totally unexpected. He is one of the few players on the batting leaders board who is not on the the Team Japan preliminary roster of 39 players, so his presence on the Tigers during the Olympics will be important in keeping the team’s big lead over its CL opponents.

    Norichika Aoki of the Tokyo Yakult Swallows makes an appearance on the leader board after missing some time with injury, he’s been on a tear lately and have continued to display his developing power with .578 SLG even in the expanded Jingu Stadium outfield. With his current hot back Aoki has pretty much cemented his place as the starting CF on Team Japan at Beijing. He will be hugely missed by the young and vulnerable Swallows during the Olympics though.

    Yokohama BayStars Seiichi Uchikawa’s breakthough season seems to be the real thing as he’s played in 70 games already and keeps on sticking around the leaderboard. He’s a career .290/.330/.420 hitter though with consistent AVG and OBP while seeing some fluctutations in SLG (.363 – .515), so either he’s altered his swing mechanics or approach at the plate to see some drastic results, or this is quite a fluke season. When I run across some interview with him I guess I’ll know.

    Pitching leaders (starters, based FIP) as of 14 July 2008:

    Toshiya Sugiuchi of the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks continues to dominate NPB in FIP but just isn’t getting the run support, luck, and defense to rack up the wins like his fellow leaders Iwakuma (Eagles), Lewis (Carp), and Darvish (Fighters). Sugiuchi’s K/BB sits at an astonishing 7.21 (Yup, that’s a 7 there in the first digit!) He’s cranked up his K rate to above 9 (his pre-2005 level) and simultaneously cut down on the number of walks issued.

    Masahiro Tanaka’s not getting his due what with his ERA over 3 and the 6-6 record, but he is contributing his share to the Eagles, though not quite at Iwakuma’s level. The Eagles have the second best run differential in the PL with +48 but are currently sitting in 5th place and out of the playoff picture. The team needs to learn how to win close games (or how to keep the lead?)

    Of the rest of the leaderboard, only Iwata, Kawakami, and Naruse are Olympic hopefuls while Utsumi, Komatsu, Greisinger, and Shimizu will be staying on the archipelago to give their clubs an edge during the Olympic month.

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    Posted in 02_English, baseball, information, NPB, olympics, opinion, Sabermetrics, statistics, tokyo | Tagged: , , , , , | 3 Comments »

    やきゅつくDS、軽くレビュー

    Posted by japanstats on 2008 June 28日 Saturday

    まだ半シーズンくらいしかプレーしてないけど、なんかゲームバランスが少々変な気がしてならない、やきゅつくDS。


    初めてこのシリーズを本格的にプレーしてる(PS2版は面倒になってすぐ挫折した)けど出塁率、長打率、OPS、WHIPとかが含まれていて、スタッツの扱いが今までの国産野球ゲームで一番頼りになりそうに見える。でも、選球眼+長打力重視の初期マネーボールタイプの球団を、1シーズン目という限定された環境の中で構築したはずなんだけど、なかなか四球を選んでくれない(それともピッチャーが現実よりストライクを投げすぎるのか、球数が現実よりかなり少なめに感じられるのは、ストライクゾーンコントロール重視のチームとしては不満…)。

    でもホームランはポンポン打ててるから、それは得点と共にリーグ1位。でもダントツで投手陣がヘボすぎるので(他チームは皆防御率3.00以下なのに、自分のヤクルトだけ何故か4.50前後)なので、チームも当然ビリ。まあ、来シーズン投手にテコ入れすれば、一気にプレーオフ(クライマックスシリーズね)を目指せそう。他の人のレビュー読んでると、なんかやきゅつくシリーズの中では、難易度が易しい方らしい。まあ、DSだからってのもあるだろうけど、 PS2版よりはとっつきやすい印象(携帯機というのにも合っている種類のゲームだと思う)、サクサク進むので軽くハマってしまいました。うー、でも打てるキャッチャーも欲しい、一年目でいきなり田淵とか長嶋がドラフト候補として現れてきた…

    Posted in 01_日本語, baseball, culture, NPB, opinion, Sabermetrics | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

    2008.6.16 NPB Update

    Posted by japanstats on 2008 June 17日 Tuesday

    Yeah, I know this is a couple of days late, but these numbers are only missing the Eagles-Giants game yesterday.

    Let’s look at the Central League first:

    Hanshin remain strong, both in the real life standings and in Pythagorean win expectations based on runs scored and runs against. But I’m starting to think that maybe the Tigers record is inflated due to the unusually weak CL this year. With interleague play almost finished CL teams have gone 53-67 against their PL counterparts so far, but then again maybe this is mostly the fault of the pathetic Yokohama BayStars who are 3-17 in interleague and sport a 16-44-1 (.267) record overall. The utter incompetence of the BayStars are probably helping other CL teams look more respectable, and tipping the balance in favour of the PL. With the slumping and injured Giants, the race for 3rd and last playoff spot in the CL is a three horse race between Yomiuri, Carp, and Swallows. (The Swallows getting it done on defence is a bit of a surprise as that’s not typically talked about.) The Dragons are doing about as well as expected, no better no less, but they are much stronger now with Kawakami back in full force.

     

    Now onto the Pacific League: 

    The Lions continue their dominance, but the reliance on the long ball didn’t work against the Tigers as the king of the jungle lost 3 out of 4, getting outplayed by a much better balanced Les Tigres team full of on base monsters (Arai, Akahoshi, and Kanemoto lead the CL, with all three OBPing over .400 and Toritani is no slouch either at .370) and killer relievers in JFK+Watanabe which makes their games 5-6 inning games. So, the Lions fortunes come October may not be so bright as they play Yankee style big ball susceptible to opposition pitching in the playoffs which usually only consist of aces.

    I’m beginning to think that the ultra-low scoring Fighters getting it done almost entirely on pitching, defence, and the cavernous Sapporo Dome last year was not a fluke, as they continue to outperform their Pythag expectations (with the staggering .718 Defensive Efficiency, far and away the best in the PL and NPB), winning one close game after another (they’re like the winning version of the Padres in this regard). 

    The Eagles are for real, they’re getting it done both with hitting, pitching, and defence (they, in fact, have the highest Pythag win% in NPB!), I expect them to pull ahead of the Hawks to secure themselves a playoff position and battle the Fighters for 2nd place.

    Posted in 02_English, baseball, information, NPB, opinion, Sabermetrics, statistics, tokyo | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

    NPB Power Rankings 08.6.3

    Posted by japanstats on 2008 June 3日 Tuesday

    Another busy week, so a short poster here. This interleague week’s day off was Monday. We have completed the first 2 weeks of interleague play now.

    1. Hanshin Tigers(1) 34-17-1 .667

    6-4 against PL teams, most importantly winning both games against PL leading Lions at home in Koshien. It’ll be interesting to see how they’ll fare in the return trip, but this definitely cemented the Tigers place at the top of this ranking.

    2. Saitama Seibu Lions(3) 34-21-1 .618

    Lost both games to the Tigers (though took the other cats to extra innings in the second game), but split the pair of games against the Dragons at home. 76 homeruns in 56 games is still far outpacing the next best homerest NPB team Dragons with 50 in 53 games and Buffaloes with 46 in 57 games. Bocachica with his amazing .997 OPS is still hitting 9th in the order, because the team’s still winning and pro athletes tend to be superstitious (they started him off hitting 9th when he first came back from the minors, understandably). 5-5 in interleague so far. Brazell continues to suck hard in the middle of the order with a .263 OBP and .416 SLG (and he started off the year scorching hot too!), there’s absolutely no justification for continuing to let him hit in the 4 spot… other than superstition.

    3. Chunichi Dragons(2) 28-22-3 .560

    4-6 in interleague competition so far, slowly but steadily falling behind the Tigers in the CL standings and in this ranking as well. Split its games against the Lions, but lost both games to the Fighters, it’s never a good sign when you give up 11 runs to the weakest hitting club in the nation.

    4. Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles(4) 29-26 .527

    7-3 in interleague, the team is starting to play up to its Pythagorean expectations (248 – 195 RS – RA), this team is for real. Surprisingly, they’re getting all this run scoring (2nd in PL) done while hitting by far the least homeruns in the league at 26.

    5. Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters(5) 32-25-1 .561

    Team continues to defy Mr. Pythagoras (197 – 192 RS – RA). With the team having played 40% of its game, this is probably real too (again), a repeat of last season. The ability to win low scoring games favours the team in the postseason as well, so I suppose I could/should rank them higher… oh, another 7-3 team in interleague here.

    6. Fukuoka Softbank Hawks(7) 30-28 .517

    7-3 in interleague. Trailing the Eagles by only half a game, the battle for the final playoff berth in the PL is interesting too. Though this team’s propensity of giving up runs (242 RA is by far the worst among the top 4 PL teams) means they should be further back.

    7. Hiroshima Toyo Carp(10) 23-25-2 .479

    6-4 against PL teams. The team’s winning again, doing a good job of keeping the Giants at bay.

    8. Tokyo Yomiuri Giants(7) 25-28-1 .472

    5-5 interleague record so far. Sunk below the poor Carp in the CL standings though. The team of high rollers continue to sputter along, making it a 3 horse race for 3rd place. 

    9. Tokyo Yakult Swallows(6) 22-28 .440

    Struggling, with a 3-7 record against PL teams. Guiel’s posting a pedestrian .734 OPS, but his BA of .216 is by far the lowest amongst all qualifying CL batters and is acting as a black hole in the lineup. He struck out twice in key plate appearances late in the game that I went to see. He needs to start hitting, and with Aoki back in the lineup, the team has better potential to get back into the playoff race.

    11. Chiba Lotte Marines(9) 24-34 .414

    Woes continue with 3-7 record in interleague which brought them all the way to the bottom of the PL standings. Can’t decide if Bobby’s Marines are worse than the Buffaloes, but they’ve definitely have sunken to the bottom of the heap.

    11. Orix Buffaloes(11) 25-32 .439

    Hey, 5-5 against the CL, not bad, not bad at all. And managed to climb above the slumping Marines in the PL standings to boot.

    12. Yokohama BayStars(12) 15-35-1 .300

    Exactly .300! 2-8 against PL teams, so far so bad, as expected.

    Posted in 02_English, baseball, information, NPB, opinion, Sabermetrics | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

    2008.5.27 NPB Update

    Posted by japanstats on 2008 May 27日 Tuesday

    We’re a week into interleague play now, and that changes the day off to Tuesday, so that gives us an opportunity to look at some overlooked numbers in baseball, especially NPB.

    Def Eff
    守備効率

    F%
    守備率

    FIP

    ERA
    防御率

    W%
    勝率

    CL
    セリーグ

               

    0.685

    0.989

    4.13

    4.49

    0.304

    BayStars
    横  浜

    0.689

    0.988

    4.00

    3.56

    0.477

    Carp
    広  島

    0.688

    0.990

    3.18

    2.87

    0.587

    Dragons
    中  日

    0.669

    0.988

    3.51

    4.19

    0.49

    Giants
    巨  人

    0.713

    0.989

    4.24

    3.55

    0.457

    Swallows
    ヤクルト

    0.693

    0.991

    3.15

    2.73

    0.681

    Tigers
    阪  神

     In CL we see that defensive competency is actually keeping the Giants and Swallows closer in the standings than they really should be, as the Giants have better pitching but worse ERA due to having the worst defenders in the league (no big surprise here for a team that is always assembled full of sluggers).

    DER
    守備効率

    F%
    守備率

    FIP

    ERA
    防御率

    W%
    勝率

    PL
    パリーグ

               

    0.678

    0.988

    4.19

    4.49

    0.415

    Buffaloes
    オリックス

    0.697

    0.987

    3.36

    3.28

    0.529

    Eagles
    楽  天

    0.709

    0.984

    3.79

    2.94

    0.547

    Fighters
    日本ハム

    0.682

    0.985

    3.61

    3.90

    0.481

    Hawks
    ソフトバンク

    0.699

    0.984

    3.63

    3.22

    0.627

    Lions
    西  武

    0.679

    0.985

    3.82

    4.26

    0.407

    Marines
    ロッテ

    In the PL, Fighters have great pitchers, but it’s their defense that makes them a winning team (with league leading ERA) despite their pathetic offense (team OBP of .300 is by far the worst in the league). Eagles are for real, with their solid pitching, defense, and league leading .350 OBP and run scoring prowess, they should actually be winning more games than they currently are. Look for them to solidify their playoff position in the coming weeks.

    Read the rest of this entry »

    Posted in 02_English, baseball, information, NPB, opinion, Sabermetrics, statistics, tokyo | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

    NPB Power Rankings 08.05.19

    Posted by japanstats on 2008 May 19日 Monday

    Yeah, I keep on changing the title format as well, shoot me  😛

    1. Hanshin Tigers(1) 28-13-1 .683

    Very strong hold on 1st place in CL. With setup man Jeff Williams back from injury, the invincible JFK relief trio (with Kubota, and closer and fireballer Fujikawa) is back together for the first time since opening day. This means that starters really only need to pitch 6 solid innings to give the team a chance to win. Combined this with Akahoshi, Arai, Toritani, and Kanemoto being 1, 2, 4, and 5 in the CL OBP rankings means that this team deserves its record and ranking.

    2. Chunichi Dragons(2) 24-16-3 .600

    Similar formula as the Tigers with solid pitching (2.79 team ERA good for 2nd after Hanshin’s 2.69) and hitters who get on base (Dragons have 5-10th place locked up in CL OBP rankings with Ibata, Woods, Morino, Wada, and Nakamura, respectively). The team’s Pythagorean expectations are similar to the Tigers, and its bullpen just as effective. So it shouldn’t be a surprise if the Dragons manage to narrow the 3.5 game gap with the Tigers during the upcoming 24 game (2 games each, home and away) interleague period.

    3. Saitama Seibu Lions(3) 29-16-1 .644

    This team can sure hit. It’s sluggers have launched 63 homers in 46 games, far outpacing the 2nd place teams which are the Dragons and Giants both with 45. The PL SLG leaderboard features G.G. Sato on top with .615, and Nakajima and Nakmura in 3rd and 9th. Hiram Bocachica’s been playing amazing since his short reconditioning stint down in 2-gun, he now sports 10 HR and 1.086 OPS in only 26 games. He really should replace Craig Brazell in the middle of the lineup, as this man has no plate discipline, walking only 7 times in 198 PA for a miserable .278 OBP. I reckon the league’s already figured out that you don’t have to throw strikes to him. Since he never displayed any plate discipline in Minor League Baseball, the chances of him suddenly developing this skill here is virtually unlikely, and it’ll likely be his downfall. (Bocachica’s still hitting 9th(!) and that’s a travesty.)

    4. Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles(4) 22-23 .489

    This team can score runs too, with its 203 runs only trailing explosive Seibu’s 229. With 166 RA, the team should have a winning record, as amazingly as that sounds for this recent expansion franchise.

    5. Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters(7) 25-22 .532

    Smoke and mirrors or a continuation of last year’s successful small ball? A 152 – 164 RS – RA has been helped by some offensive outbursts this month (finally).

    6. Tokyo Yakult Swallows(6) 19-21 .475

    Continues to play its near .500 ball, now with the crosstown rival Giants hot on their heels. Aaron Guiel’s continued troubles (his OPS is now down to .755) is worrisome as he’s the team’s lone pure power source. On the other hand, relievers Oshimoto (0 ER in 20 IP!), Matsuoka (0.56 ERA in 17.2 IP), and closer Lim (0.56 ERA and 12 saves in 16 IP) have been shutdown dominant. And starters led by Ishikawa (2.63 ERA in 61.2 IP) have been holding their own.

    7. Tokyo Yomiuri Giants(10) 20-23-1 .465

    As expected, the Evil Empire have finally started hitting, and winning a little more accordingly. The team’s ugly BA in the .230s have been brought up to .250 in the last few weeks, but it’s team OBP is still a CL worst .299. Expect the fight for 3rd and final playoff spot against the Swallows to continue, as this team’s not in same class with the Tigers and Dragons. Especially with regulars like Lee and Uehara missing.

    7. Fukuoka Softbank Hawks(8 ) 23-25 .479

    Continuing to plod along like this (similar to the Giants) with 191 – 210 RS – RA, the Hawks are currently fundamentally weaker than the Eagles.

    9. Chiba Lotte Marines(5) 21-27 .438

    The Marines are in a free fall, as Bobby V’s team has gone 4-13 since we last checked in. Probably not what the manager had in mind as he was featured in a student made documentary about him on ESPN.

    10. Hiroshima Toyo Carp(9) 17-21-1 .447

    Better pitching (3.35 ERA is 3rd in CL) than the Giants, but .364 SLG is worst in CL and the Carp play in an extreme hitter’s park! 

    11. Orix Buffaloes(11) 20-27 .426

    The always injured greybeard slugger Kiyohara hit a homerun… in the minors. Nothing new here, move along.

    12. Yokohama BayStars(12) 13-27-1 .325

    Yay, the BayStars brought their winning percentage above .300!

    I plan on alternating power rankings and a more sabermetric individual performance reviews every other week, unless work or real life puts up too much interference.

    Posted in 02_English, baseball, information, NPB, opinion, Sabermetrics, statistics | Tagged: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

    Some NPB v MLB offense comparisons

    Posted by japanstats on 2008 May 5日 Monday

    Just did some comparisons of NPB and MLB offenses for 2005-07. Just scratching the surface here, so nothing deep yet.

    R/G

    Year・年

    CL・セ

    PL・パ

    NPB

    AL・ア

    NL・ナ

    MLB

    平均試合

    2005

    4.40

    4.46

    4.43

    4.76

    4.45

    4.59

    得点

    2006

    4.12

    3.92

    4.03

    4.96

    4.76

    4.86

     

    2007

    4.11

    3.94

    4.03

    4.90

    4.71

    4.80

     

    OPS

    Year・年

    CL・セ

    PL・パ

    NPB

    AL・ア

    NL・ナ

    MLB

     

    2005

    0.739

    0.739

    0.739

    0.754

    0.744

    0.749

     

    2006

    0.712

    0.705

    0.709

    0.776

    0.761

    0.768

     

    2007

    0.724

    0.701

    0.713

    0.760

    0.756

    0.758

     

    Although Japanese baseball is known for its small ball from top to bottom (even though WBC was won with timely big bats), in 2005 NPB and MLB offenses exhibited very similar R/G and OPS numbers, then they diverged rather extremely after that (I don’t have NPB data for years before 2005, and wasn’t going to go beyond 3 years for analysis anyways, but it looks like a future project).

    Read the rest of this entry »

    Posted in 02_English, baseball, information, MLB, NPB, opinion, random, Sabermetrics, statistics | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | 3 Comments »

    2008.4.14 魔将ウォッチ

    Posted by japanstats on 2008 April 14日 Monday

    4月14日時点のアーロン・ガイエル選手(ヤクルト)の成績

    13試合 54打席 11得点 6本塁打 15打点 7四球 0死球 .340/.426/.830(打率/出塁率/長打率) 

    ホームラン、打点、長打率は現在セリーグ1位

    Posted in 01_日本語, baseball, information, NPB, Sabermetrics, statistics | Tagged: , , , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

    セイバーメトリクスについて

    Posted by japanstats on 2008 February 13日 Wednesday

    これもまた別の場所での書き込みですが…

    セイバーメトリクスとは、ただ対象になってるデータ項目が長年重要視されていたものと違うだけで、データ分析自体は前から行われていました。それに、データだけでチームを構成しようとしている球団なんてもちろん存在せず、まだデータ分析とスカウトの目の適切なバランスを探そうとしている過程でしょうね。

    投手の勝利数や打者の打点は立派な成績として後世に残りますが、あまりにもチームメイトの能力や運や他の要素に左右される数字なので、将来の成績の予測に使う項目としては信憑性に欠けます。それで運等、選手が直接コントロール出来ない要素をなるべく省いた項目をいろいろと研究して編み出しています。選手年俸が天文学的な数字になってきた時代なので、下手にリスクを冒すより、将来の成績をより正確に読めるように努力していますね、多くの球団は。(それで今まで疎かになっていた守備の指標の研究にかなり力を入れていますが、各球団の企業秘密になってしまっている部分が多いので、残念ながらこれはまだあまり公開されていません。)

    あと出塁率については、打数ではなく打席数が分母となる(四死球の時も打者は打席に立ちますので、それを無視してしまう打数という数字では選手の能力を語りきれない)上、野球において一番重要な財産であるアウトを、どれだけ取られないかという成績なので、攻守両側から見て重要性が分かりやすい数字だと思います。セイバー活動での一番の功績が出塁率の重要さをメジャー球団や世間(アメリカの中継では普通に打率や本塁打と並んで表示される事が多くなった)に伝えられた事じゃないでしょうか。

    Posted in 01_日本語, baseball, information, Sabermetrics, statistics | Tagged: , , , , , , | Leave a Comment »

    アレックス・ラミレス

    Posted by japanstats on 2008 January 23日 Wednesday

    ヤクルトから巨人へと都内異動をしたラミちゃんことアレックス・ラミレスですが、今年の展望はどうでしょう?

    日本へ来てからほぼ毎年3割30本くらい打って100打点以上稼いでいるので、とても確実に成績を残してきているように見られますが、そこから一つ掘り下げた打撃成績のOBP/SLG/OPS(出塁率/長打率/出塁率+長打率)を見てみますと、2003年のピークの373/616/989 から確実に右肩下がり傾向を維持してきて2006年には289/449/738 まで落ちました。そこで昨季突然メイクミラクルしてしまい、なんと371/569/940 な2007年だったのです。

    去年で32才だったのでラミレスが2003年版へ完全復刻したとはとても思えず、2008年の成績はどっちかというと2007年より2006年に近くなると思います。まあ、巨人ならではのリスクを無視した高い買い物であり、ヤクルトが無駄な大金を叩かずに済んだ可能性大なので、燕ファンとしてはこれは嬉しいのか…?(一般ファンからは評価の低い低打率ながら高出塁率+高長打率型選手の、ガイエルの怪我によるシーズン前半のパンチ力激減が心配だが…)

    ラミレス:

    http://japanesebaseball.com/players/player.jsp?PlayerID=1354

    ホームラン後のパフォーマンスはどれだけヤクルト時代から変わるのかな?

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